Will the county road-bond referendum pass in the spring election?

80%

Resolved: It happened

foresight — resolution score

final_prob  80%
outcome     1 (yes)
brier       0.040
# lower is better — 0 is a perfect call

History

Every estimate you’ve logged, oldest first — how your mind changed.

Initial estimate: 55%May 5, 2026, 2:36 AM
No rationale logged.
Updated to 70%Jun 4, 2026, 2:36 AM
Local paper endorsed it; turnout model favors yes.
Updated to 80%Jun 29, 2026, 2:36 AM
Early vote counts are running well ahead of the 'no' campaign.